Insider's view: Volvo's path to an electric future

The cars we are driving are changing. The environment and the dwindling reserves of oil demand it. Volvo, like others, is looking to electrify its range with the ultimate goal of zero emissions. That's a big challenge for a small firm, but one that Paul Gustavsson, Director of Electrification Strategy at Volvo Cars, admits is necessary. The recent reductions in CO₂ from Volvo's range have seen fuel consumption numbers drop significantly for its best-performing environmental model - from 43.5mpg to 74.3mpg. CO₂ output has seen a similarly dramatic fall, though Volvo is looking to a future where there are no emissions.

Electrification is expensive

To do so Volvo is preparing for an electrically driven future. However, Volvo is a small company and development of electric drivetrains isn't cheap. That hasn't stopped Volvo planning for cars needing plugs rather than pumps, Gustavsson claiming that the Swedish firm will spend 1.5 billion Euros between 2006 and 2014 researching new technologies alone. One of the chief costs remains the price of batteries - though this is coming down.

Battery prices dropping

If you've bought a new mobile phone or laptop recently you'll have noticed prices falling. Much of that is down to the cost of the lithium ion batteries dropping. That's good news for the electrification of our transport, Gustavsson claiming that the lithium ion batteries it needs to achieve its plans have dropped in price by as around 30 percent since last Christmas. As more and more manufacturers require batteries, prices will continue to fall, while range and charging times will also improve with the acceleration in demand.

Joint effort

Gustavsson admits it's not simply a case of waiting for battery prices to come down. For electrification of cars there will need to be joint efforts combining car manufacturers, electricity suppliers and society itself. The car manufacturers need to come up with cars people want to buy and drive, the electricity suppliers with a means of charging them - both filling the batteries and paying for the same - and the infrastructure to do so. Society? That's up to government - on a local, national and international level to provide incentives and legislation to ease the electrification of our cars.

Waiting game

Ultimately that means electrification is something of a waiting game, while all the elements align to allow volume production and sales of electric cars. Being a relatively small firm Volvo cannot lead, but is preparing its range in anticipation of the electric future. From 2012 all Volvo models will be plug-in, hybrid electric vehicle prepared, while Volvo is due to launch a plug-in hybrid version of its V70 in the next two years. The new S60 is likely to follow. In the short term all Volvos will gain technology like start/stop and other fuel and emissions saving technology that's seen its DRIVe models achieve their impressive reductions in emissions and huge improvements in fuel economy.

Plug-in fears

Capacity of the electrical power grid is one concern for many but Volvo suggests that if 15 percent of cars on the road in Europe were replaced with plug-in hybrids then total electricity use would only increase by 1-3 percent. Obviously the introduction of such plug-in hybrids and eventual growth of fully electric plug-in vehicles will increase that demand in time, but the electrification of transport isn't something that's going to happen overnight.

Timeline

Electrification is closer than ever, but still some way off. The internal combustion engine still has lots of life in it yet, Volvo just one car maker developing ever more efficient engines. Those conventional powerplants will be helped in some models from 2012 with plug-in hybrid modules, which will enable drivers to cover typical commutes using electricity alone - the conventional diesel (or petrol) engine kicking in when it's required on longer journeys. Proper fully electric plug-in vehicles remain a relatively distant proposition, the need for greater range, quicker charging and lower production costs remain - for now - reasons why they'll be implemented more slowly.

Kyle Fortune